World Population: Growth or Decline Trends
Global Population Trends: Growth, Aging, and Future Challenges
The global population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is projected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. However, it will then decline to around 10.2 billion, which is 700 million lower than previous estimates.
Uneven Population Changes
According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, population changes are uneven across the globe. Some regions are experiencing rapid growth, while others face rapid aging. Reliable population data is crucial for addressing these changes effectively.
Importance of Accurate Data
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the importance of accurate population data, stating, “Everyone counts.” Reliable data ensures that all people, especially those on the margins, are included in development efforts.
Fertility Rates and Aging Population
Global fertility rates are dropping. Women today have one child fewer on average than they did in 1990. In more than half of all countries, the average number of births per woman is below the replacement level of 2.1. Some countries, like China and Italy, have “ultra-low” fertility rates, with fewer than 1.4 births per woman.
Population Peaks and Declines
As of 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries, including China and Germany. These populations are expected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years. Additionally, the world’s average age is increasing. By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 and older will surpass those under 18.
Rapid Growth in Low-Income Countries
While high-income countries see slow growth or population declines, low-income countries are experiencing rapid growth. Countries like Angola and Niger are projected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054. This growth will increase resource demand, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, exacerbating environmental impacts and food insecurity.
Reproductive Health and Development
Women’s sexual and reproductive health and rights are vital for sustainable development. In 2024, 4.7 million babies were born to mothers under 18, with serious health consequences. Investing in girls’ education and delaying marriage and childbirth can improve women’s health, education, and labor force participation.
Sustainable Development Goals
Efforts to improve reproductive health and education will help reduce the investments needed for sustainable development, ensuring no one is left behind. The World Population Prospects report highlights the need for comprehensive policies to address these global challenges.
Re-reported from the article originally published in UN News.
